Evan Handed

You have to hand it to our friend Evan Stavisky when it comes to unbiased political observations. Here's his take-via the Crain's Insider-on the possible Giuliani-Gillerbrand senate match up in 2010 that we commented on yesterday: "“New York's fundamentally a Democratic state, the Conservative Party's already attacking him, [running] would affect his business, and he still doesn't have the temperament to handle an inquisitive press corps,” says Democratic consultant Evan Stavisky. He likens the idea of Giuliani for Senate to Kevin Costner in Water World: “Marquee star, sounds like a good idea in the pitch meeting, but in reality, it's a flop.”

According to Evan, Rudy is this vulnerable ingenue, as likely to collapse like one of his favorite opera divas once the heat gets too intense. This is, of course all very silly-and tendentious we might add. One could observe that the fact that Giuliani is now ahead by 14 points in the latest Marist Poll, while somewhat a function of the former mayor's name recognition, is at the same time a recognition of the fact that the appointed senator has failed to make much of a dent in the public consciousness-aside from her consistent ability to alter her appearance at (Schumer's) will.

And campaign's do have two sides. So while Rudy has his weaknesses to exploit-and Stavisky is certainly right about New York's Democratic bona fides-Gillibrand's extreme makeover and her Paterson paternity can be exploited as well. No? And let's not forget the trouble that John Corzine faced over in the (mostly) Democratic state of New Jersey.

2010 might not be the best time for a newly minted senator-someone who has undergone a complete change from her original, more conservative Blue Dog positions. Chuck Schumer likes to say that Gillibrand has evolved, but to us it looks more like a mutation.